Mapping past and future patterns of European urbanisation

Abstract

All urbanisation processes are in a constant state of change. European urbanisation is undergoing fundamental changes, the main sign of which is a move away from megalopolises based on economies of scale and industrial output. In this paper, we introduce the term "Old Model" to refer to to this historical state. Europe is now increasingly witnessing urban development in the form of narrow corridors and isolated points of growth more related to environmental considerations, arising largely because of the increasing availability of excellent transportation facilities. Here, we refer to this state as the "New Model". Europe has long since ceased to be mainly a manufacturing region. Some three-quarters of all the continent's workers are now in highly productive tertiary occupations, and our cities are reflecting this shift. This study attempts to quantify the shift and concludes with the idea that transport is the key to future patterns of urban growth.