Identifying the risk factors associated with nursing home residents’ pressure ulcers using machine learning methods

Abstract

Background: Machine learning (ML) can keep improving predictions and generating auto-mated knowledge via data-driven predictors or decisions. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare different ML methods including random forest, logistics regression, linear support vector machine (SVM), polynomial SVM, radial SVM, and sigmoid SVM in terms of their accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictor values, and positive predictive values by validating real datasets to predict factors for pressure ulcers (PUs). Methods: We applied representative ML algorithms (random forest, logistic regression, linear SVM, polynomial SVM, radial SVM, and sigmoid SVM) to develop a prediction model (N = 60). Results: The random forest model showed the greatest accuracy (0.814), followed by logistic regression (0.782), polynomial SVM (0.779), radial SVM (0.770), linear SVM (0.767), and sigmoid SVM (0.674). Conclusions: The random forest model showed the greatest accuracy for predicting PUs in nursing homes (NHs). Diverse factors that predict PUs in NHs including NH characteristics and residents’ characteristics were identified according to diverse ML methods. These factors should be considered to decrease PUs in NH residents.