A study on the proximate determinants of fertility decline in China

Abstract

To study the biological and behavioral process of the recent drastic fertility decline in China, the authors reviewed relating factors (proximate determinants) and applied the Bongaarts model to the population of China for the years 1971 and 1981, during which the fertility rate dropped most rapidly and substantial population control policies were performed. By application of the model, the decrease of TFR of 2.78 between 1971 and 1981 was estimated to be contributed by widespread of contraception (68%), later marriage (49%), and increase of induced abortion (28%), through shortening of the length of postpartum breastfeeding showed negative effects (-32%), on the assumption that local data could be substituted for some national data. Compared with other countries, China was characterized by coexistence of strong fertility-inhibiting effects of nonmarriage, contraception, induced abortion, and relatively strong fertility-inhibiting effects of breastfeeding. It strongly suggested that the fertility transition in China was realized by powerful population policies in the context of insufficient socioeconomic development to lead to the transition.