Formal Modeling in Social Science

Abstract

A formal model in the social sciences builds explanations when it structures the reasoning underlying a theoretical argument, opens venues for controlled experimentation, and can lead to hypotheses. Yet more importantly, models evaluate theory, build theory, and enhance conjectures. Formal Modeling in Social Science addresses the varied helpful roles of formal models and goes further to take up more fundamental considerations of epistemology and methodology. The authors integrate the exposition of the epistemology and the methodology of modeling and argue that these two reinforce eachother. They illustrate the process of designing an original model suited to the puzzle at hand, using multiple methods indiverse substantive areas of inquiry. The authors also emphasize the crucial, though underappreciated, role of a narrative in the progression from theory to model. Transparency of assumptions and steps in a model means that any analystwill reach equivalent predictions whenever she replicates the argument. Hence, models enable theoretical replication, essential in the accumulation of knowledge. Formal Modeling in Social Science speaks to scholars in different career stages anddisciplines andwith varying expertise in modeling. “Political scientists spend too little time considering why we make formal models. Mershon and Shvetsova perform that task in a creative, provocative way. That allows them to show us systematically how to move from doing textbook exercises to actually using models in political inquiry. This is an excellent book.” James Johnson, University of Rochester “This is a truly excellent book that both illustrates why formal modelling is an important tool for developing better theories in the social sciences, and provides a practical, step-by-step framework for using formal modelling.? Through the innovative use of narrative stories, the methods become more understandable and accessible. The arguments about theory-development as a back-and-forth process also align with the situation that researchers typically find themselves in. This book will be widely read and used.” Derek Beach, University of Aarhus, Denmark.