The Main Drivers of Wetland Evolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain

Abstract

Analysis of the driving mechanism of wetland change can help identify the spatial differences in the mechanisms of different elements in order to better scientifically prevent and utilize wetlands. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain (BTHP) was selected as the study area, and the dynamic degree model and change intensity index were utilized to examine the spatial and temporal changes of wetlands based on four periods of land use data. After establishing a wetland change evaluation system that included topography, geology, meteorological, and human activities, we utilized a random forest model to study the driving mechanism of wetland change from 1990–2020. Based on the developed zoning map, we then offered specific protection policies. We have four major findings: (1) the wetlands reduced significantly in the BTHP and underwent a change process from decreasing to increasing, and reservoirs and rivers, particularly along the Bohai Rim, were the primary determinants of wetland changes; (2) the impact of topographic factors such as elevation showed a significant gradient effect, the impact of geological factors such as hydrogeological division was low and indirect, the impact of meteorological factors was nonlinear, and the impact of anthropic factors was most significant and showed clear spatial directivity; (3) the urban expansion and agricultural reclamation had significant dominant effects, coupled with the topographical effects of elevation and slope, the geological environmental effects of surface subsidence and hydrogeological division, and the cumulative effects of temperature and precipitation, which resulted in the spatial change of wetlands; and (4) protecting wetland integrity, dynamic monitoring, restricting human activities, and establishing wetland buffer zones should be applied to the general area, natural factors area, anthropic factors area, and significant comprehensive area, respectively.