The land-use land-cover change–emerging infectious disease nexus reconsidered

Abstract

Deforestation due to land-use and land-cover (LULC) change has been linked to increased emerging zoonotic disease risk despite limited local level data on such outbreaks. This Forum reevaluates this risk inference using newly released data on zoonotic disease outbreaks, accounting for Structural One Health features, including socioeconomic development and armed conflict covariates. Event and time series data on disease and forest coverage anomalies at the 0.5-degree level for every month between January 2003 and December 2018 are used to estimate the relationship between LULC and zoonosis using Poisson generalized additive and generalized linear models. Once adjusted for Structural One Health features, outbreak risk is 7%–200% higher in areas that experienced forest cover reversion. These results highlight the importance of accounting for Structural One Health factors when analyzing complex socioecological phenomena such as the LULC–infectious disease nexus.