Increase of energy potential of Russian forest resources due to climate change and CO2 fertilization

Abstract

Biofuels are an important energy source, currently providing about 10% of the world energy demand, including 2% of global electricity generation and the same share of total liquid fuel consumption. Wood fuel in Russia is one of the most affordable and most important type of renewable energy resources. In this paper we study the possible changes in energy potential of Russia's forest resources as a result of changes in the atmosphere and climate. The estimates of the global dioxide concentrations dynamics and mean annual air temperature change over the Russian territory for the period up to 2050 are developed using the MPEI models of the carbon cycle and regional climate. The calculations show that the change of net primary productivity of forests of Russia as a result of the CO2 abundance increase in the atmosphere, as well as of the increase of the air temperature and rainfall will enhance available energy resources of wood fuel by mid-century by more than 9 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce).