Prognostic nomogram for adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia: A SEER database analysis

Abstract

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is hematopoietic malignancy. This study was designed to develop an individualized prognostic nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) of AML. The clinical data of AML patients (n = 58,882) diagnosed from 1973 to 2014 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The patients were divided into training cohort (n = 29,441) and validation cohort (n = 29,441). The prognostic nomograms were designed with clinical variables selected by multivariate Cox regression model in training cohort. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to assess the performance of the nomograms. The predictors in nomogram for CSS were AML subtypes, age, sex, region, marital status, and chemotherapy, whereas the predictors for OS were AML subtypes, age, sex, region, race, marital status, and chemotherapy. The C-indexes of the nomograms in internal validation for CSS and OS were 0.712 and 0.703, respectively, whereas the C-indexes in external validation for CSS and OS were 0.712 and 0.705, respectively. The area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic curves for CSS and OS were 0.799 (95% confidence interval: 0.792–0.806) and 0.809 (95% confidence interval: 0.803–0.816), respectively. The individualized prognostic nomogram could perform relatively accurate prediction of outcome in adult patients with AML.