Scrutinizing the Hydrological Responses of Chennai, India Using Coupled SWAT-FEM Model under Land Use Land Cover and Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

This study implemented a coupled SWAT-FEM simulation model to evaluate the impacts of land use land cover and climate change scenarios (LCS) on the water resources of river catchments in Chennai, India. The land use land cover data were obtained by merging the source data from National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) and International Water Management Institute (IWMI). Climate change simulations were obtained from four global climate models (GCM), including GFDL Baseline Scenario (1981–2000), GFDL A1B Scenario (2081–2100), CCSM4 Baseline Scenario (1986–2005), and CCSM4 A1B Scenario (2081–2100). The LCS predicted temperature increases of 2.32 °C and 1.74 °C for GFDL and CCSM4, respectively, by the end of the century. The water use predictions suggested increases above 20% in the utilization of water by 2100, inferring the noticeable dynamics of inter-annual as well as inter-month variability in water resources in the river basins of Chennai soon. The study is novel through its implementation of a coupled modeling approach to improve the practicality of the SWAT-FEM model and to deliver useful projections of land and climate change impacts on hydrological responses. The results provide useful insights into how the variability in climate conditions alters the spatiotemporal water responses in catchment scales.