La réactivité des analystes financiers en temps de crise au sein de la zone Euro

Abstract

This paper studies the link between stock price changes and analyst earnings per share (EPS) forecast revisions in the Eurozone during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The study shows that in 2008, the importance of stock returns in explaining changes in analysts' earnings forecasts was higher and their impact was more significant than during the benchmark year 2006. These results lead us to conclude that analysts did not ignore information from stock exchanges during the market crash but instead relied on them more heavily to adjust their forecasts, contrary to what Ang et Ma (2001) observed on the Asian markets in 1997. In addition, analysts did not shy away from strong downward revisions of their forecasts, above and beyond the effects of factors estimated pre-crisis. This is evidenced by an increased sensitivity of changes in analysts' forecasts to stock price variation and is consistent with a widespread perception by market participants of the transitory effect of the deterioration. © Association Francophone de Comptabilité.