Signaling Financial Distress Through Z-Scores and Corporate Governance Compliance Interplay: A Random Forest Approach

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of machine learning algorithms in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of predicting financial distress. The dataset includes Altman Z-Scores and Corporate Governance Compliance (CGC) indicators calculated for manufacturing firms listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) from 2016 to 2022. Leveraging Signaling Theory, the study analyzes financial and governance data for 60 non-financial firms, comprising 420 firm-year observations. Financial distress is classified into three categories: no distress, moderate distress, and severe distress. The study employs a Random Forest classification model, leveraging artificial intelligence techniques to identify critical predictive variables and evaluate their combined effectiveness in signaling financial distress. The findings reveal that machine learning algorithms significantly improve the predictive accuracy and reliability of financial distress classifications, effectively distinguishing between different distress levels by integrating financial ratios and corporate governance variables. These results emphasize the advantages of involving artificial intelligence and advanced analytics in financial distress prediction models, enhancing transparency and strengthening investor confidence. The research contributes to the literature on digital transformation in financial analysis and corporate governance, offering practical implications for investors, managers, creditors, and policymakers in emerging market environments.