Future of winegrape growing regions in Europe

Abstract

Background and Aims: Recent climatic warming trends are evident from observational studies, and investigating the likely impact of climate change on biological systems is of substantial importance. In this study, MaxEnt modelling has been applied to predict the possible effect of climate change on winegrape distribution across Europe using the basic bioclimatic variables. The proportion of potential area lost because of warming was estimated for the most important wine-producing countries. Methods and Results: A MaxEnt modelling approach was used to predict the possible effect of climate change on the distribution of winegrape (Vitis vinifera) across Europe using basic bioclimatic variables. The predictions of the climate models, Hadley Centre Coupled Model 3 and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization MK3, were used to obtain potential changes in climatic suitability for growing winegrapes. The area loss is calculated for the main wine-producing countries in Europe, Portugal, Spain, France and Italy. Annual mean temperature was significant to model performance, and predicted suitable areas fitted well against the known winegrowing regions. Future predictions showed consistent changes based on a range of climate scenarios, with winegrowing regions predicted to shift northward. At the same time, additional problems may arise in the Mediterranean region as the most significant area loss is predicted for these regions. Conclusions: The predicted range stability until 2050 is dynamic, implying adaptations such as changing of grape cultivar and selection or modification of grapevine management could be necessary even in those regions which remain suitable in the future. Significance of the Study: To our knowledge, this is the first study to analyse the future distribution of winegrapes in Europe in response to global warming using MaxEnt modelling. Area loss was considered for only those locations where viticulture was covered by the CORINE database. This approach provides more realistic information, since the area suitable for winegrape cultivation is evidently much larger than the realised range.