Prediction of Flood Processes Based on General Unit Hydrograph

Abstract

The general unit hydrograph (GUH), recently established by Guo, represents the most advanced hydrograph model today, but how to implement it with hydrologic data is another story. In this work, an effective initial value-based method for estimating the parameters in the GUH model is proposed and applied to the analysis of flood processes. In contrast to the flood-rainfall united fitting method, which heavily depends on the flood records and has a broad range of parameter variations, which makes it practically intractable, the initial value-based method enables the calculation of model parameters directly from the measured rainstorm data and greatly enriches the discharge dataset so that more accurate prediction of flood processes becomes achievable. From the data collected from several watersheds, we find that smaller-shape parameters usually indicate a multi-peak flood process, and the rainfall patterns have a significant impact on flood peaks. These results provide a reliable approach for the prediction of floods in streams with scarce discharge data. Additionally, it is observed that the peak time lags have a notable increase from the southwest to the northeast of Zhejiang.