Impact of climate change on agricultural development in a closed groundwater-driven basin: A case study of the Siwa region, western desert of Egypt

Abstract

The Siwa region located in the Western Desert of Egypt has 30,000 acres available for reclamation as a part of a national project to increase agricultural production. This study addressed the climate change-driven long-term concerns of developing an agricultural project in this region where groundwater from the non-renewable Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the only source of water. Different climate models were used under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs); RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Projected seasonal temperatures show that the maximum increase in summer is 1.68 ± 1.64◦C in 2060 and 4.65 ± 1.82◦C in 2100 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The increase in water requirement for crops is estimated around 6–8.1% under RCP 4.5 while around 9.7–18.2% under RCP 8.5. Maximum reductions of strategic crop yields vary from 2.9% to 12.8% in 2060 under RCP 4.5, while from 10.4% to 27.4% in 2100 under RCP 8.5. Project goals are feasible until 2100 under RCP 4.5 but only until 2080 with RCP 8.5. When an optimization analysis was conducted, these goals are possible from 2080 to 2100 by modified land allocation. The proposed methodology is useful to project impact of climate change anywhere such that management and adaptation options can be proposed for sustainable agricultural development.