Prior Experience Predicts Presidential Performance

Abstract

While many assume that “experienced” presidents perform better, citizens do not know which prior experiences help presidents perform successfully, or in what ways. Drawing upon the organizational sciences literature, we argue that prior experiences similar to the presidency will positively predict performance in general; prior experiences similar to an aspect of the presidency will positively predict performance in that particular aspect; and experiences dissimilar to the presidency will either not predict, or negatively predict performance. Contrasting with previous literature, our findings support this intuitive rationale for understanding the effect of prior experience. These findings contribute not only to the long-standing president-centered vs. presidency-centered debate, but also to a growing body of literature explaining how leaders' backgrounds affect how they govern.