Research on the Forecast and Development of China’s Public Fiscal Revenue Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract

To promote the preparation of the financial budget of more scientific and reasonable, this study adopts the revenue and expenditure data from 1950 to 2013, and applying Johansen cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test of causation financial statements between income and expenditure. The result is that there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between spending and revenue caused by this principle by using the moving average difference sequence auto regression model and the least-squares regression fitting equation. The choice of revenue analysis and forecasting finds the optimal model and provides more accurate prediction effects for the budget constraints of the prospective shift from preparation to establish multi-year balanced budget to provide reference, and future revenue growth slowed projections indicate an active role in the conclusion of the people's livelihood-oriented public finances construction being taking place.