Attention based spatial-temporal graph convolutional networks for traffic flow forecasting

Abstract

Forecasting the traffic flows is a critical issue for researchers and practitioners in the field of transportation. However, it is very challenging since the traffic flows usually show high nonlinearities and complex patterns. Most existing traffic flow prediction methods, lacking abilities of modeling the dynamic spatial-temporal correlations of traffic data, thus cannot yield satisfactory prediction results. In this paper, we propose a novel attention based spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (ASTGCN) model to solve traffic flow forecasting problem. ASTGCN mainly consists of three independent components to respectively model three temporal properties of traffic flows, i.e., recent, daily-periodic and weekly-periodic dependencies. More specifically, each component contains two major parts: 1) the spatial-temporal attention mechanism to effectively capture the dynamic spatial-temporal correlations in traffic data; 2) the spatial-temporal convolution which simultaneously employs graph convolutions to capture the spatial patterns and common standard convolutions to describe the temporal features. The output of the three components are weighted fused to generate the final prediction results. Experiments on two real-world datasets from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS) demonstrate that the proposed ASTGCN model outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.