Voter habituation and opinion activation in misreporting voting behavior in the 2020 presidential election

Abstract

Pre-election surveys are commonly used to predict turnout and vote choice, but anticipating who votes is challenging. Often survey respondents do not truthfully report their behavior and specifically overreport socially desirable actions like voting. In this study, we analyze factors influencing misreporting voting and vote method in a pre-election web survey of registered voters in the 2020 presidential election. More specifically, we test how voter habits (administrative data from the Florida voter file) and contextual factors (elite messaging, COVID-19 infection rates, and competitiveness) have impacted the likelihood of misreporting voting and vote method in the 2020 presidential election. We find that voter habits regarding voting and vote method significantly reduce the likelihood of misreporting such behaviors. Finally, in speaking to opinion activation, we demonstrate with our Florida survey and the 2020 Cooperative Election Study, that Trump supporters were significantly and substantially, more inclined to disclaim voting by mail when in fact they did.