A surrogate model of offshore wind farm support structures for wind farm design and financial valuation

Abstract

In the preliminary phases of offshore wind farm development, very little information on project design are available for supporting financial valuation and site design. In this work, we develop a surrogate model for offshore wind support structure mass for input to techno-economic analysis that is based on a small set of input parameters. Using reference turbines and a broad set of met-ocean conditions, a large design spaced is developed from which a sampling of conditions is used to estimate the dimensions and mass of monopile support structures. The results are parameterized using statistical methods to create a functional model of costs relative to high-level site and technical inputs. To preserve the transparency of the model input-output relationships, a statistical surrogate model is used based on quadratic functions of the inputs. Overall, the rated power and rotor diameter of the turbine has the greatest influence on the mass, followed by the specific power. The water depth was the next most important environmental parameter, followed by wave period. The full surrogate model captures 98.5% of the variance of the monopile mass as a function of the above inputs. We present results related to monopile foundations, but the methodology is flexible and can be applied also in the case of other types of support structures.