Aligning Green Finance with the Digital Economy: Multiple Pathways to Synergy in the Pearl River Delta

Abstract

The deep integration of green finance and the digital economy serves as a critical lever for achieving the “dual carbon” goals and the “Digital China” strategy. This study constructs a “Technology–Capital–Environment” (TCE) analytical framework and integrates a coupling coordination degree model with a dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) approach. Based on panel data of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration from 2014 to 2023, we investigate the synergistic development level, multiple pathways, and dynamic evolution between the two systems. Key findings include: (1) The coupling coordination degree of the two systems has steadily increased, yet significant spatial heterogeneity persists. The average annual growth rate of potential catch-up cities (3.37%) surpasses that of core leading cities (1.77%). (2) Four equifinal driving pathways are identified, which can be summarized into three patterns: technology-dominated institutional synergy, human capital–policy dual-core guidance, and technology–infrastructure synergistic driven. (3) Dynamic analysis reveals that pathways embedded with digital human capital and new infrastructure exhibit stronger resilience to shocks, whereas pathways reliant on institutional synergy demonstrate higher vulnerability. (4) Guangzhou and Shenzhen have already exhibited “ecosystem-level” synergistic characteristics, rendering existing configurational models limited in explanatory power. This study provides a theoretical foundation for promoting regionally differentiated deep integration of green finance and the digital economy and for building a resilience-oriented synergistic development system.