The impact of the first demographic dividend on economic growth considering human capital

Abstract

Given the modest growth rates of the Russian economy over the past 10 years and population aging, a careful study of the demographic component of economic growth is of particular interest. This article provides a quantitative assessment of the first demographic dividend in Russia in 1997–2017. Based on Rosstat data for 74 Russian regions, the growth rates of real GRP per capita are modeled depending on the share of the working age population. Additionally, the model includes the possibility of assessing the dynamics of economic growth at the expense of human capital, since its high level can compensate for the negative influence of the demographic factor. According to our calculations, the demographic factor is significant and in the 2000s, it contributed to economic growth; since 2010, Russia has received a negative demographic dividend. Human capital weakly compensates for the negative trends of the demographic factor, which in the coming years will serve as a serious challenge to the growth of the Russian economy. The revealed positive, although still weak, influence of human capital indicates that the development of human capital in the regions of Russia can become a driver of their development.