Risk analysis of climatic change on black Sigatoka on banana in Brazil

Abstract

The knowledge of the probable impacts of global climatic changes on the occurrence of plant diseases is of great importance for the agricultural sector, since it allows the elaboration of control strategies. The aim of the present paper was to study the probable impacts of climatic changes on black Sigatoka disease of banana, by means of the elaboration of distribution maps of the disease using IPCC scenarios A2 and B2. The maps evidenced that there will be a reduction of the favorable area to the disease in the country. Such reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 and higher for A2 scenario than for B2. Despite this, extensive areas will still continue favorable to the occurrence of the disease, especially in the period of November to April.