Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States

Abstract

The cool season (November–March) of 2022–2023 was exceptional in the western United States (US), with the highest precipitation totals in ≥128 years in some areas. Recent precipitation extremes and expectations based on thermodynamics motivate us to evaluate the evidence for an anthropogenic intensification of western US cool-season precipitation to date. Over cool seasons 1951–2023, trends in precipitation totals on the wettest cool-season days were neutral or negative across the western US, and significantly negative in northern California and parts of the Pacific Northwest, counter to the expected net intensification effect from anthropogenic forcing. Multiple reanalysis data sets indicate a corresponding lack of increase in moisture transports into the western US, suggesting that atmospheric circulation trends over the North Pacific have counteracted the increases in atmospheric moisture expected from warming alone. The lack of precipitation intensification to date is generally consistent with climate model simulations. A large ensemble of 648 simulations from 35 climate models suggests it is too soon to detect anthropogenic intensification of precipitation across much of the western US. In California, the 35-model median time of emergence for intensification of the wettest days is 2080 under a mid-level emissions scenario. On the other hand, observed reductions of precipitation extremes in California and the Pacific Northwest are near the lower edge of the large ensemble of simulated trends, calling into question model representation of western US precipitation variability.