Are retrospective rail punctuality indicators useful? Evidence from users perceptions

Abstract

This study analyzes the perceptions of individuals on retrospective rail punctuality indicators to determine the most useful indicator according to socio-demographic characteristics, regular trip behavior variables, and railways transportation habits variables. In choice situations, individuals must choose between four punctuality indicators and an out option. Common punctuality indicators have been selected among those proposed by the authority for quality of service in transport, as well as a new punctuality indicator from the financial literature: Delay-at-Risk. Thus, via an online survey and econometric modeling, we show that respondents appreciate the usefulness of punctuality indicators for planning their long-distance rail trips. The usefulness is reinforced by the fact that respondents employ several modes for regular trips and frequent train users. Moreover, they have already experienced missed appointments or connections. The risk attitude and prudence of respondents also play an important role but not totally in the expected direction. Lastly, Delay-at-Risk, although unknown and more complex in its formulation, exhibits some characteristics that are appreciated by users.