Recreational Fisheries Encountering Flagship Species: Current Conditions, Trend Forecasts and Recommendations

Abstract

Recreational fisheries increasingly intersect with the habitats of flagship species, i.e., species that attract public attention and drive conservation efforts, raising potential ecological conflicts. This study investigated the spatial coupling between recreational fisheries and three flagship species in the Yangtze River Basin: the Chinese alligator (Alligator sinensis), the Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides), and the scaly-sided merganser (Mergus squamatus). Drawing on over 10,000 fishing Points of Interest recorded between 2015 and 2024 and over 300 verified species occurrences, this study applied a Random Forest model with spatial integration and a Maximum Entropy model to examine estimated current distributions and forecast interactions from 2025 to 2035. Flagship species habitat suitability was modeled and projected at a spatial resolution of 1 km, while recreational fishing density was resolved on a coarser grid of 1.875° × 1.25° in latitude–longitude dimensions. Results reveal a substantial increase in high-risk overlap zones. For example, high-density fishing areas within high-suitability habitats for the scaly-sided merganser expanded from 0 km2 in 2015 to 85,359 km2 in 2024. Projections indicate continued intensification of such overlaps, particularly in regions including Ma’anshan–Wuhu, the Taihu–Chaohu–Poyang lake system, and Yibin. These findings offer robust, model-driven evidence of growing spatial conflicts and offer actionable insights for ecosystem-based governance. The methodological framework is transferable and supports broader applications in other regions and species under ecological sustainability goals.