Cash Subsidies for the Poor: Evaluating Thailand's State Welfare Card Programme

Abstract

This paper examines the causal effects of Thailand's 2017 large-scale unconditional cash transfer programme (‘the state welfare card programme’) that covered over 20% of the country's population. The study uses regression discontinuity methods and data from the 2019 nationally representative household socio-economic survey. Results show that this programme had no significant impact on consumption expenditure and food expenditure, as intended. However, the programme caused a significant increase in non-consumption expenditure, especially items paid for in cash. Also, the programme significantly increased in-kind consumption expenditure, demonstrating the payment modality of the programme. Given a large evidence base showing the poverty-reducing effects of cash transfer programmes in developing countries, the findings point to the need to revamp the programme at both design and implementation stages.