Strategizing for sustainable development of transport systems in the safety dimension

Abstract

The article conducted a study on approaches to the strategy of sustainable development of transport systems on the example of air transport in Ukraine. The shortcomings of the main tool of their strategy, namely the methods of classical forecasting, which limit its application, are revealed. The methods of forecasting based on expert judgment and classical methods of forecasting containing congenital pathology of errors are considered. Therefore, long-term factors and trends are identified, which remains a classic forecast, rather than building long-term forecasts of the national economy. To implement the stage of strategic planning of transport systems used the concept of sustainable development, which includes stages of identification through integrated assessment in the measurement of safety and strategy by defining goals, building the desired trajectory and decomposition of integrated indices through adaptive control methods of management theory. Three scenarios for the development of air transport in Ukraine have been developed: realistic - 3.8%; optimistic -7.0% and balanced - increase in gross value added (GVA) by 11.7% with scientific substantiation of quantitative values of indicators and key macroeconomic indicators, which guarantees the desired trajectory of sustainable development, and monitoring their implementation determines the effectiveness of public policies and actions.