Calculating fire danger of cured grasslands in temperate climates - the elements of the Grassland Fire Index (GLFI)

Abstract

Background: Increasing extreme weather events due to climate change require updated environmental monitoring and prediction systems in Germany. Aim: The Grassland Fire Index (GLFI), developed by the German Meteorological Service 15 years ago for temperate climates, was revised to improve fire-danger predictions during the fire season. Our paper gives insight into the new model version. Methods: The former fire-behaviour core, i.e. Fosberg's Fire Weather Index (FWI), is replaced by the standardised fire-reaction intensity, a different fuel-moisture of extinction term, and a replica of the fire-spread rate of the Canadian FFBP-System. A standardised ease-of-ignition index is added as a measure of ignition success. The fire module is supplied with diurnal dead-grass fuel-moisture calculations based on the water-budget and energy-balance concept. Key results: The GLFI output is compared with diurnal fuel-moisture measurements and results of Wotton's Grass-Fuel-Moisture model, Fosberg's FWI, and Cheney's rate of spread equation. The GLFI computes periods with a high fuel moisture more realistically, whereas it exceeds Cheney's rate-of-fire spread systematically at lower wind speeds, which leads to higher danger ratings during calm-air conditions (as requested by users). Conclusions and Implications: The GLFI estimates dead-fuel moisture and fire danger on open, horizontal topography according to the current scientific level. Model extensions are necessary to run the model on complex topography under varying greenness and occasional frost conditions.