LOW-CARBON TRANSPORT TRANSITION AND URBAN GREEN DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA: A QUASI-NATURAL EXPERIMENT

Abstract

This study investigates how low-carbon transportation policies influence urban green development in China by leveraging the Low-Carbon Transportation System (LCTS) pilot program as a quasi-natural experiment. Adopting city-level panel data from 2006 to 2015 and a staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach, the policy’s impact on Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) is quantitatively assessed. Results indicate that LCTS significantly enhances green development efficiency in pilot cities, driven by reduced carbon emissions, optimized energy consumption patterns, and the adoption of green technologies such as intelligent transportation systems and electric vehicles. Mechanism analysis confirms that the policy curbs transportation-related energy use and emissions while fostering technological innovation. Spatial heterogeneity reveals negative spillover effects on neighboring cities’ green technology progress, underscoring the need for regional coordination. The findings provide empirical support for scaling low-carbon transportation reforms and integrating fiscal, technological, and industrial incentives to achieve China’s dual-carbon goals. This research offers actionable insights for global policymakers seeking to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability.