Was There Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the Eve of Emu? the German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined

Abstract

In this paper we re-examine the German dominance hypothesis, as a way to assess whether the loss of monetary autonomy in Europe associated with EMU had been significant. We use Granger-causality tests between the interest rates of Germany and all the countries participating in the European Monetary System, with the sample period running until December 1998. Our results would support a weak version of the hypothesis, with Germany playing a certain "leadership" or special role in the EMS, although she would not have been strictly the "dominant" player.