Beyond a complete failure: the impact of partial capacity degradation on public transport network vulnerability

Abstract

Disruptions in public transport networks (PTNs) often lead to partial capacity reductions rather than complete closures. This study aims to move beyond the vulnerability analysis of complete failures by investigating the impacts of a range of capacity reductions on PTN performance. The relation between network performance and the degradation of line or link capacities is investigated by establishing a vulnerability curve and related metrics. The analysis framework is applied to a full-scan analysis of planned temporary line-level capacity reductions and an analysis of unplanned link-level capacity reductions on the most central segments in the multi-modal rapid PTN of Stockholm, Sweden. The impacts of capacity reductions are assessed using a non-equilibrium dynamic public transport operations and assignment model. The nonlinear properties of on-board crowding, denied boarding, network effects and route choice result in non-trivial, generally convex, relations which carry implications on disruption planning and real-time management.