How Ireland is Facing the Threat of a ‘No-deal' Brexit

Abstract

Ireland will be the EU country, after the UK itself, most affected by the economic fall-out from Brexit. Its agri-food sector, in particular, has most to fear from the consequences of a disorderly or ‘no-deal' Brexit. The increased probability of a no-deal Brexit under Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister who has succeeded Prime Minister Theresa May, raises three issues for the Irish government. The first is whether to accept some relaxation of the conditions around the backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement if this were the price of UK approval of this Agreement. The second is to prepare for the adverse economic impacts likely from a disorderly Brexit in which the UK leaves without a deal, not least for the agri-food sector. The third is to work out how to manage the Ireland-Northern Ireland border in the event of a hard Brexit, given its insistence that it does not plan checks along the land border and nor is it planning for checks in the Irish Sea. This Point de Vue discusses how the Irish government is addressing each of these challenges.