Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Austria's Energy System

Abstract

As the energy systems increasingly rely on variable renewable energy sources (VRES), their sensitivity to weather grows, introducing uncertainty and risks. Climate change further intensifies these challenges by affecting supply, demand and resilience of infrastructure. The ROBINE11ROBINE (Region-specific impact assessment of climate change for a robust and integrated energy infrastructure in Austria) funded by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG) under project number FO999905716 as part of the 2022 Energy Research Call. project aims to develop climate indicators for severe weather events at the regional level and assess the impact of climate change on Austria's future energy system. This work exemplifies 'desert days' indicator and illustrates the projected demand and supply changes by 2040, considering 20-year periods during which climate models predict an average increase in global warming levels (GWLs) of 2 C, 3 C, or 4 C compared to preindustrial levels. Results show a significant rise in desert days, especially in eastern regions. The changes in supply side various between regions, particularly for wind. While electricity demand increases, demand for heating and e-mobility decreases in 2040, leading to a slight overall drop.