Influence of future climate scenarios using CMIP 5 data on malaria transmission in India

Abstract

Background: Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, pose a significant global threat, and climatological factors greatly influence their intensity. Tropical countries, like India, are particularly vulnerable to such diseases, making accurate estimation of malaria risk crucial. Methods: This study utilized the well-known Vector-borne Disease Community Model, VECTRI, developed by the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste. The model was implemented to estimate malaria’s Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR). Future climatic prediction datasets, including CMIP 5 and population data sets, were used as inputs for the analysis. Three RCP scenarios are considered (Representative Concentration Pathways are climate change scenarios that project radiative forcing to 2100 due to future greenhouse gas concentrations). The projections covered the period from 1 Jan, 2020, to 31 Dec, 2029. Results: The estimated mean EIR for the years 2020–2029 ranged, and a significant decline in malaria risk was observed with all RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios. Each year 0.3 to 2.6 [min–max] EIR/person/day decline is observed with a strong decline in man rainfall ranging from 5 to 17 [min–max] mm/year and associated high temperatures ranging from 0.03 to 0.06 [min–max] °C/year. During the post-monsoon period, August to November were identified as highly prone to malaria transmission. Spatial analysis revealed that the east coast of India faced a higher vulnerability to malaria risk, which kept increasing through RCP scenarios. Thus, it is essential to exercise caution, especially in areas with heavy rainfall. Conclusion: This research provides valuable insights for policy-makers, highlighting the need to implement future strategies to mitigate malaria risk effectively. By utilizing these findings, appropriate measures can be taken to combat the threat posed by malaria and protect public health.