MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY FOREST FIRE IN UKRAINE

Abstract

In this publication, the authors analysed the current state of economic and environmental damage caused by forest fires in Ukraine. Uncontrolled spread of fire not only causes significant economic damage, but also has dire consequences for the ecology. The burning of large areas of forest leads to a radical change in the ecosystems of the affected region, which can eventually lead to unpredictable results. Thus, the negative indicators of forestry are: quantity of forest fires, units; area of forest lands covered by fires; losses caused by forest fires; burned and damaged forest. It should be noted that the indicators of the consequences of forest fires do not mathematically correlate with the loss of wood cover in Ukraine, which are determined by the data remote sensing of the earth (Forest Global Watch). At the same time, a data set Global Forest Watch on the loss of wood cover concerted with a number of institutions, including the University of Maryland, Google, USGS і NASA, and this resource uses satellite imagery Landsat to display the loss of yearly tree cover with a resolution of 30 × 30 meters. Existing approaches to calculating economic losses are described. The authors' approach to the determination of losses from forest fires, which is based on statistical and mathematical methods (correlation analysis, mathematical modelling) of scientific research, is proposed. The proposed mathematical model makes it possible to estimate the amount of economic damage caused by forest fires in Ukraine.