Is the number of global natural disasters increasing?

Abstract

We analyze temporal trends in the number of natural disasters reported since 1900 in the EmergencyEvents Database (EM-DAT) from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Visualinspection suggests three distinct phases: first, a linear upward trend to around mid-century followed byrapid growth to the turn of the new century, and thereafter a decreasing trend to 2022. These observationsare supported by piecewise regression analyses that identify three breakpoints (1922, 1975, 2002), with themost recent subperiod 2002–2022 characterized by a significant decline in number of events. A similarpattern over time is exhibited by contemporaneous number of geophysical disasters–volcanoes,earthquakes, dry landslides–which, by their nature, are not significantly influenced by climate oranthropogenic factors. We conclude that the patterns observed are largely attributable to progressivelybetter reporting of natural disaster events, with the EM-DAT dataset now regarded as relatively completesince ∼2000. The above result sits in marked contradiction to earlier analyses by two UN bodies (FAO andUNDRR), which predicts an increasing number of natural disasters and impacts in concert with globalwarming. Our analyses strongly refute this assertion as well as extrapolations published by UNDRR basedon this claim.