THE ANALYSIS AND RESOLUTION OF NORTH NATUNA SEA CONFLICT IN THE FUTURE

Abstract

The North Natuna Sea (NNS) conflict among some countries has been an important case in Indonesia. Related to the North Natuna Sea conflict, it will discuss Indonesia's future conditions faced with the interests of China itself. The NNS conflict is a prolonged conflict because it is faced with security conditions for China itself, also related to the future of the country which is related to economic conditions and territory for China. From the results of predictive analysis both in exploration, projection, and forecasting, the results obtained are Scenario I: China's hegemony in prioritizing its interests has not changed by continuing to carry its nine dashed line, Scenario II: China's hegemony began to reduce its military power in the NNS so that tensions were reduced and Scenario III: Entering social power, which in this case is the concept of cooperation and the presence of ASEAN in bridging conflicts that occur so as to create security stability in the NNS. The results of the analysis stated that, the system-change scenario is faced with a concept that is favorable for countries in conflict in the NNS, especially Indonesia. If faced with an open war, of course this will have a negative impact on the safety of the nation and world peace, then cooperation is the right choice to avoid prolonged conflict. However, a more definite mechanism is needed to regulate the concept of Indonesia - China Cooperation in managing the NNS which certainly does not necessarily interfere with the nation's sovereignty.