The Gulf's evolving security mosaic: balancing the manifest retrenchment and latent influence of the United States

Abstract

The Gulf region's security architecture appears to be undergoing a fundamental transformation. US military forces are gradually withdrawing, Gulf states are asserting unprecedented autonomy and competing powers are expanding their regional influence. Yet these visible shifts mask deeper continuities. This article examines this apparent paradox through a novel interdisciplinary framework that distinguishes between manifest indicators of change and latent mechanisms of persistent influence. While conventional analyses focus on visible metrics—military deployments, diplomatic realignments and formal agreements—this study reveals how technological dependencies, infrastructural networks and knowledge regimes perpetuate American influence despite apparent withdrawal. The analysis reveals three critical mechanisms sustaining US influence: ‘digital lock-in’ through software-dependent weapons systems, creating ‘weaponized interdependence’; persistent physical infrastructure networks providing operational access and surge capacity; and human capital development that embeds dominant western security paradigms. These mechanisms highlight the temporal asymmetry between rapidly shifting political alignments and the slower evolution of technological dependencies. Rather than witnessing a dramatic restructuring, the Gulf exhibits ‘residual hegemony’, where diminishing material presence coexists with enduring normative, technical and institutional legacies. This reconceptualization offers a more nuanced theoretical understanding of how regional security architectures evolve, suggesting that the most durable forms of influence may reside in socio-technical systems rather than in formal security arrangements. For policy-makers, this indicates that sustainable engagement increasingly depends on technical embeddedness rather than conventional military presence or diplomatic pronouncements.