PENDEKATAN Z-SCORE DAN FUZZY DALAM PENGUJIAN AKURASI PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN

Abstract

Determination of rainfall is important to determine the intensity of rain that occurs in an area. Rain intensity that is too high will certainly have a bad impact. Forecasting or prediction techniques are used to determine the likelihood of intensity occurring in the following year. However, rainfall data are continuous numerical data. Measurement of accuracy becomes more difficult if the data type is like that. So, this study tests the accuracy of rainfall forecasting in the city of Denpasar from a different perspective. This test combines the Z-score method and the Fuzzy set theory to normalize and classify rainfall data. This combination determines the degree of rainfall membership divided into Upper, Middle, and Lower levels. Based on the results of rainfall accuracy testing starting in 2012-2016 obtained an average value of accuracy of 85% with training data that is data in 2007-2015. The normalization process greatly affects the value of the training data.