Climate Change Effects on Dates Productivity in Saudi Arabia: Implications for Food Security

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the impact of climatic alteration on food security in Saudi Arabia. Date productivity, temperature, and precipitation represent the data which were collected from various sources linked to the study subject and cover the period from 1980 to 2023. The Engle–Granger two-step procedure, the VECM, and forecast analysis were applied to test the long-term relationship, short-term integration, and forecasting, respectively. Moreover, qualitative analysis was used to reveal the influence of climatic change on food security. The results discovered long-term co-integration between date productivity and temperature. Additionally, the results revealed that there has been long-running co-integration between date productivity and the precipitation series. Temperature and precipitation negatively and significantly impacted date productivity during the study period. With reference to forecast results, the graph was validated using various forecast indicators: the Alpha, Gamma, Beta, and Mean Square Error equivalents were 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, and 5.47, respectively. Moreover, the growth rates of date productivity were equal to 0.82 and 0.08 for the periods from 1980 to 2022 and 2023 to 2034 (forecast), respectively, indicating that there is a decrease in the growth rate of date productivity (0.08) during the forecast period. From these results, the conclusion is that climatic change (temperature and precipitation) negatively impacts date productivity. In addition, the growth rate during the forecast period decreased, indicating that climatic change is affecting food security currently and will continue to do so in the future. This study recommended specific policy interventions and innovations in agricultural practices, including developing and implementing a national framework focused on climate-smart agriculture, balancing productivity, adaptation, and mitigation. This could be aligned with Vision 2030 and the Saudi Green Initiative. Additionally, this could include investing in research and development by increasing public–private partnerships to support agricultural R&D in arid regions, with a focus on heat- and drought-resistant crop varieties and water-efficient farming systems. Regarding agricultural innovations, these could include the use of renewable energy, particularly solar energy, the expansion of rainwater harvesting infrastructure, recycling treated wastewater for agriculture, and reducing reliance on groundwater sources.