Time series analysis for assessing and forecasting of road traffic accidents - Case studies

Abstract

Road traffic accident is one of the main causes of injuries and fatalities worldwide, serious injuries and mortality in road collisions being a public health problem. The paper gives a overview of time series modeling and forecasting with application in road traffic injuries monitoring. After presenting of the main models and the methodological issues used in Box-Jenkins approach, the paper discusses two case studies, using a multiplicative SARIMA model and an intervention model, for a time series representing the number of mortal traffic accidents in USA, and the road traffic accidents with death and serious injuries in the UK, before and after the imposition of the Arabian embargo in November 1973.