Forecasting solar generation in energy systems to accelerate the implementation of sustainable economic development

Abstract

The analysis and assessment of the development of solar energy were carried out and it was noted that the production of solar electricity in the world has increased by more than 15% over the last year. In 2020 there are more than 37 countries with a total photovoltaic capacity of more than one GW, and the share of solar energy in total world electricity production was 8.15%. In the regional context, the largest production of electricity by solar energy sources is in Asia (at the expense of India and China) and North America (USA). The study assesses the main factors in the development of solar energy from the standpoint of environmental friendliness and stability of the electricity supply. The problem of the utilization of solar station equipment in the EU and the US is considered. According to the IPCC, IEA, Solar Power Europe, forecasting the development of solar energy in the world is considered. It is proved that the main factor in assessing the economic efficiency of solar energy production is a regional feature due to natural and climatic conditions (intensity of solar radiation). The use of solar generation is auxiliary for the operation of modern electrical networks as long as the efficiency of photovoltaic cells increases by at least 60-65%. Marginal costs of solar energy are minimal in those countries where active state support is provided. The competitiveness of solar energy is relatively low. However, from the standpoint of replacing energy fuel at a cost of USD 10 per 1 Gcal of solar energy saves 10-20 million tons of conventional fuel. Industrial production of solar electricity at modern solar power plants forms a price at the level of USD 250-450 for 1 MWh.