Projections of the Transient State-Dependency of Climate Feedbacks

Abstract

When the climate system is forced, for example, by the emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Such state dependencies cannot be fully captured with common linear regression techniques that relate feedback strengths linearly to changes in the global mean temperature. Hence, transient changes are difficult to track and it becomes easy to underestimate future warming this way. Here, we present a multivariate and spatial framework that facilitates the dissection of climate feedbacks over time scales. Using this framework, information on the composition of projected transient future climates and feedback strengths can be obtained. The new framework is illustrated using the Community Earth System Model version 2.