Measuring the Lockdown Effectiveness in Arresting Covid-19 in India

Abstract

A new virus (SARS-CoV-2) or COVID-19, was identified in China in late 2019 and since then it has spread across the Globe. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared it as a pandemic. On 24th March, India imposed a three-week long nationwide lockdown for its 1.3 billion people to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic [1]. This was quoted as the biggest isolation effort taken by any government at that point of time. With a lot of extensions for the lockdown phase in between, the nationwide lockdown was gradually and finally lifted by 1st of June with multiple government guidelines for living with the new normal. This study aimed at measuring the efficacy of the nationwide lockdown by observing the growth rate of daily confirmed and active cases in pre-Iockdown, during lockdown and post lockdown stages. The study also statistically reviewed the progress of the disease at a state level, especially for the top 5 affected states of India, to comment over the lockdown's effectiveness in those states. Statistical analysis of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between January 30, 2020 and July 24, 2020. 'Lockdown' to impose strict social distancing measures was effective in reducing incidence of spread in India. Country level lockdown has restricted the growth rate of spread of virus and provided initial benefits to the healthcare infrastructure of states. However, augmentation of healthcare infrastructure to an appropriate level is key to continue gain from lockdown measures.