Fusing foresight and futures thinking for a new transformative evaluation paradigm

Abstract

This paper explores the role and potential of foresight in evaluation practice in an increasingly uncertain and complex world. Evaluation designs, which have primarily focused on assessing past and present performance, are becoming less adequate for guiding organizations and strategies toward desired futures. Consequently, there is a pressing need for evaluations to adopt a more future-focused approach. This article argues for the integration of foresight and futures thinking into evaluation methodologies to support transformative change and tackle the systemic challenges of our time. By drawing on an evaluation case study from the Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra, we demonstrate how applied foresight methods, including Horizon Scanning and a modified Delphi method, enhanced the evaluation process. These methods enabled a forward-looking perspective essential for informing strategic decision-making and programming. Specifically, the application of foresight methods in Sitra's evaluation supported assessing the relevance and timeliness of strategic choices, provided options for future programming, and deepened the understanding of complexities around ecological reconstruction and the operational environment. The paper contributes to the evolving discourse and practices on transformative evaluation by offering practical insights into the use of foresight methods, ultimately advocating for a paradigm shift toward more dynamic and future-oriented evaluation practice.