Exposure modelling in Europe: how to pave the road for the future as part of the European Exposure Science Strategy 2020–2030

Abstract

Exposure models are essential in almost all relevant contexts for exposure science. To address the numerous challenges and gaps that exist, exposure modelling is one of the priority areas of the European Exposure Science Strategy developed by the European Chapter of the International Society of Exposure Science (ISES Europe). A strategy was developed for the priority area of exposure modelling in Europe with four strategic objectives. These objectives are (1) improvement of models and tools, (2) development of new methodologies and support for understudied fields, (3) improvement of model use and (4) regulatory needs for modelling. In a bottom-up approach, exposure modellers from different European countries and institutions who are active in the fields of occupational, population and environmental exposure science pooled their expertise under the umbrella of the ISES Europe Working Group on exposure models. This working group assessed the state-of-the-art of exposure modelling in Europe by developing an inventory of exposure models used in Europe and reviewing the existing literature on pitfalls for exposure modelling, in order to identify crucial modelling-related strategy elements. Decisive actions were defined for ISES Europe stakeholders, including collecting available models and accompanying information in a living document curated and published by ISES Europe, as well as a long-term goal of developing a best-practices handbook. Alongside these actions, recommendations were developed and addressed to stakeholders outside of ISES Europe. Four strategic objectives were identified with an associated action plan and roadmap for the implementation of the European Exposure Science Strategy for exposure modelling. This strategic plan will foster a common understanding of modelling-related methodology, terminology and future research in Europe, and have a broader impact on strategic considerations globally.