Constrained Intentions: Individual Economic Resources, Regional Context, and Fertility Expectations in Germany

Abstract

Using five waves of the German Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (pairfam), we examine how economic circumstances are related to fertility intentions in childless young men and women in East and West Germany. We explore multiple dimensions of fertility intentions: short-term intentions for the next two years, long-term expectations about family size, and uncertainty about these short-and long-term intentions. Our findings suggest that economic circumstances constrain fertility intentions and increase uncertainty. Although fertility intentions differ between men and women and by region, the broad mechanisms that predict intentions are very similar across groups for long-term intentions and uncertainty. However, group differences emerge in short-term intentions.