Numerical-Based Computerized Modelling for Tsunami: Initiating Planning for Natural Disaster of South Kota Denpasar-Bali

Abstract

This article addresses planning for natural disaster management. It focuses on composing preventive measures before a natural disaster. Assuming a potential tsunami hitting the coast of Sanur (the southern and eastern coastal-fronts of Kota Denpasar - Bali’s capital), analysis is grounded by conducting numerical-based computer modeling. It relies on three sets of data: slope, coefficient of surface roughness, and wave height impact. This computer modeling generates scenarios of potential inundation whose catastrophic consequences would have serious impacts on urban life, individuals, and the island's economy. Based on the height of the wave hitting the coast, three scenarios of 5, 10, and 15 Meters are projected. A numerical-based modeling system provides hypothetical data that is then deterministic in analyzing critically impacted urban areas before any spatial-based evacuation scenario can be developed. The study concludes that Denpasar is potentially in a perilous situation. There is a great and present danger that demands impact-based mitigation planning for natural disasters, which is currently absent. Working with a priority, study findings lead to the most urgent need to constitute a plan for tsunami-based mitigation for Serangan Island – one among ten administrative territories of the selected case study - inundation caused by all three scenarios fully submerge that. However, given Denpasar’s extensive and encompassing littoral zones, the need for such a plan – for all ten spatial units that come under its administration - is now urgent and of maximum priority.