The impact of multiple typhoons on severe floods in the mid-latitude region (Hokkaido)

Abstract

Mid-latitude regions in the North Pacific are generally vulnerable to climatological disasters and are possibly more sensitive to future climate changes. Severe flood disasters struck Hokkaido in August 2016 because of the multiple, continuous typhoons that struck the island. We evaluated the effect of these typhoons on floods and changes in future floods using a distributed hydrological model in a watershed located in eastern Hokkaido. We conducted two numerical examinations: a simulation with a major typhoon only (which caused flood disasters) without other preceding typhoons, and a simulation with a simple assumed future climate (in which we employed higher precipitation). The result of the former simulation demonstrated that the impact of the preceding typhoons on the highest flood peak was significant during the early stage of the major typhoon but weaker after the middle stage of the major typhoon. The result of the latter simulation indicated that flood peaks potentially increased with an increase in precipitation. Based on the water level distributions in the surface layer, the impact of multiple typhoons and future weather conditions on potential flood peaks depends on the degree of soil saturation over our target watershed.