Probability of menopause with increasing duration of amenorrhea in middle-aged women

Abstract

The empirical percent probability that natural menopause has occurred after first presentation of amenorrhea of various durations in women ≥45 years of age has been calculated using data from a cohort of subjects who prospectively recorded menstrual flow and related gynecologic events. The probability that menopause has occurred increases with the amenorrheal interval (duration), and for a given interval, the probability increases with age. After 180 days of amenorrhea, 45% to 72% of subjects were menopausal; after 360 days, 90%. These data may offer assistance in advising patients on the probability of menopause and the continuance of contraceptive practices, and in considering whether late genital bleeding after amenorrhea represents a physiologic or pathologic process. © 1979.